Today is a slow newsday in Pittsburgh.  Most news outlets are talking how that after the 2007 census estimate and an adjustment Toledo now has more people living in it than Pittsburgh PA.

Now why is this news is a good question and a slap at the good people of Toledo Ohio. 

What I have to talk about is how can a count of people be adjusted 20,000 people up.  That would be a correction of 6%.  If a count of who lives where is off by 6% we need a better method.  The main problem with the count isn’t the error but funding from the Federal Government is based on population.  If this funding is off then the ability of a city to fund its programs can be in jeopardy.

If the entire population of the US was off as much we would have an additional 19 million people in the US.  That is a substantial difference.  That is more than most states in the U.S.

Now do I have an answer?

Sorry but I do not. But knowing there is a problem is the first step of solving it.  Once we admit we can not count we can think outside the box and see what we can do to fix the problem.  The biggest problem is one side will some groups higher so they can get more votes.  The other side will want others counted so they can get more votes.  We need an outside interest to get to the answer.

Until next time.  Don’t let them steal your brain. Think for yourself.

This coming week in the Northern / Eastern US it will turn very cold, approximately zero Fahrenheit.  At this point is is dangerous to go outside.  As anyone who has spent any time outside knows when the wind blows it feels colder.  

Slate  has a nice discussion on windchill.  I will say that I do not agree that wind chill is not useful.  When trying to dress in the day it matters between low positive numbers and mid teens below zero.  Most people living in the American South will say that anything below 60 is cold.  

Humans love to label.  We name everything we can.  In the Bible, one of the first things stated is that man named everything.  Now I believe the Bible is written by man so that means that a man stated one of the important item is to label everything.  When it is asked how cold will it be the answer about 5 but it will feel much colder is not an answer most Americans like.  We like number and exacting precision.

If for the psychological good feeling wind-chill is needed.

Until next time then.

Don’t let them steal your brain! Think for yourself!

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090109/ap_on_bi_ge/madoff_false_profits

Some people who withdrew money from Madoff scheme over the years now may have stolen money on their hands.  What to do with the “profits”?

Most people probably didn’t realize that they were taking other people’s money.  Do you give it back?  Are you fined and required to give some of it back.  This is similar to receiving a stolen car you purchased from someone else.  The difference is with money you don’t always have it to give back.

Until not so long in the future.

Prof Pod

I was listening to Meet the Press this past Sunday and I hear Tom Brokaw ask Senator McCain what he thought about the polls that showed he is behind in the US Presidential race.  Senator McCain stated that he had his own polls that showed the race is close.    Who is right?  The answer is both!!!  Until we know the exact question being asked we can’t judge how correct a poll is.

Do you support Barack Obama’s plan to redistribute income from some people to others with less?  or Do you support Senator Obama’s plan to help middle class families?

Both of these questions are about the same issue but both could be answered honestly by some people in opposite ways.

I wish that when poll results are they would list the exact wording of the polls.  This would help the public know what to trust.  Even if you are not a statistician you know a biased question from reading it.  As we enter the last week (finally!), please remember to read the wording with the polls along with reading the numbers when they are reported.

Until next time, don’t let them steal your brain! Think for yourself!

With the US presidental election soon to be over.  Finally.  The news media will probably focus on the turnout and how heavy it is and whether this will give the president elect a “mandate” for his policies.  I say let’s look at the numbers.

For the last election in 2004 according to the US Census “64 percent of voting-age citizens” voted in the election.   This was higher than the 1996 or 2000 presidental elections.  Wow you might say 64% about 2 of 3 people voting age voted.  And since the election was split about 51% to 49% in popular voting that means around 33% of voting age US residents picked the President Bush to continue in office.  Please note that my commentary would be valid if Senator Kerry would have won.  That means that 66% of the people voting age either didn’t want a second Bush term or didn’t care enough to vote.  Approximatley the same number didn’t want Kerry or didn’t care.  To me that doesn’t sound like an overwhelming amount of the public gave support.

Looking at the second page only 72% actually registered.  That means that 28% didn’t even register to vote and therefore could not vote even if they wanted to do something.  But this is improving over 1996 where just about 58% of eligible voters voted.  And since President Clinton won with under 50% only 26% of adults in the US voted for a second Clinton term.  Ouch!

So after the election when the new president stands on the podium and says the American public has spoken.  Becareful with the number and make sure that we really have.  Even with an expected high turn out the percentage, I am guessing less than 70% of voters will vote.  This may be a 53 to 47 election or closer again meaning only around 38% of voters will vote yes for the next president.

It’s time to look at ourselves and realize we need to work together and not run over the party or group not in power.  This goes for both sides.

For full disclosure, I do live in Pittsburgh, PA (66% democratic by registration) yes inside city limits and I do have an advanced college degree.  Does this make me a big city democrat elitist?  Or does the fact I have voted against both parties in 3 out of the 6 presidential elections I was eligible to vote in make me a Maverick?  Or the fact I look for answers and not labels make me a realist?  Do do I hate labels and consider myself a thinkist, one who looks at each issue seperately and pick who makes sense for that problem?

Until next time.

Don’t let them steal your brain! Think for yourself!

To paraphrase from Mr. Andrea Mitchell, Alan Greenspan, from his hearing on October 23rd 2008.  Garbage in Garbage Out.

Anyone who has done much programming, estimating, and / or forecasting can tell you the answers are only as good as the numbers and estimations you put in the models.  Alan Greenspan pointed out the deficiencies in the models that have been used to predict how the ecomony works.  This is true in any model including the presidental canadates.  They may not be lying but they may be deluding themselves and us.

If you go into a model with pre-existing thoughts on how it should work then the model will be tainted.  In the best cases, you should have an idea how a system works and model and test your model.  If you model is wrong then look at your assumption.

With the ecomonic models we should ask:

Was the data long enough in the past to see long – term trends?

Does the data include anomalous data such as from World Wars which is not expected to be duplicated?

Have you run it against historical models to see if the pattern has worked in the past?

Given the output, I would say none of these or owther questions were asked.

This is important when looking at plans and models and this is something we as the public has to do since we can not rely on others to do the thinking for us.

For the four or five readers, a new tag line.

Don’t let them steal your brain! Think for yourself!

Until next time then.

The first math expression we learn is 1 + 1 = 2.  While that is true is real life that isn’t always true in business.  Now General Motors is trying to buy Chrysler LLC.  The idea is that one big car company with another car company makes a very large car company.  Horray!

This is where business and math don’t mix.  I own a 08 Chevy Malibu.  It is a sweet ride.  I am happy with my purchase but it is an example of where more is not more.  The Malibu, G6, Aura are all based on the same platform.  Notice I did not mention the Saab 9-3 or Opel because I am concentrating on a single market.  I am not mentioning the Chevy Impala and Buick Lacrosse (ok Canadians stop snickering).  All 5 cars compete in the same market.  They are all GM vehicles.  GM can not compete against itself that much and be successfull.  Now add the Dodge Avenger and Chysler Sebring to the mix and you have 7 cars from one company competing in the same market.  So 7 is less good than 5 or even 2 which would be great.  So addition can lead to subtraction.

This all sounds like common sense but I don’t make the multi-tens of millions that the heads of GM and Chrysler make so I may not know what I am doing.

Until next time, fight Innumeracy!  Keep thinking critical about those numbers.

Awhile back I talked about percentage versus absolute change regarding the stock market.  How the “biggest” drop still did not measure up when compared to 1987′s 25% drop.  While this is true for one day, when added up the change is massive.

In the past 5 days the Dow Jones industrial average fell 18.6%.  This is a tremendous change in a short amount of time.  i think this could be a “bigger” change than 1987.  Here is where conjecture meets numbers.  A one day drop is traumatic but the next few days there was a bounce up.  This time the change is consistent over time.  Now I’m not saying to watch for falling stock brokers around high buildings, but caution may be necessary.  Numbers tend to run in patterns.  This is true where there is not a force guiding the pattern.  In an average flip of a coin, you will have a run of head and tails often.  Flipping Coins Pattern Explanation We have seen a few days in a row of down returns.  This could be partially random but it could be a self-fulfilling prophesy.  People think bad things are going to happen and then they look for bad news.  It is also selective interpretation of facts.  It has happened the other way as well.  Remember the on-line grocery store?

The big question is where does it end.  I don’t know and I don’t think anyone else knows either.  We can guess and explain afterwards but numbers tell us nothing without history and insight from looking at the overall picture.  Sorry to leave on an uncertain mark but number can tell us what but not always why or whats next.

Until next time, Fight Innumeracy!  Now is exactly the time to think critically about those numbers.

When the U.S. Economic bailout, recovery plan, or whatever it is being called, was first introduced I waited for the “experts” to come forward to discuss the plan.  I expected to hear why it would and why it would not help.  I was not dissappointed with this.  I heard from both sides and from some other sides that were unexpected.  I heard from conversative Republicans stating the the free market needed to handle this problem.   I heard from liberal Democrats stating that the rich in wall street didn’t need to be bailed out.  I heard from others stating that if the credit markets were loosened no one would be able to get loans.

What I heard continually was that no one was quite sure that this plan would even help but we needed to do something.  700 BILLION is a lot of money in 2008.  In 100 years it might not be as much but for now it is.  There were economic indicaticators thrown here and there.  People watched the stock market.

After a couple of days, I realized that the experts could not give us a straight work or not work answer.  This meant the politicians would need to make a judgement call.  Politicians are not super people.  They have the same skills and abilities as most people.   Most lawmakers went with the bailout because of a turn-out the call campaign and the volume of calls from thier consistuents.

Normally, this is good but why are people calling?  Many called because someone at a work place or group told them they needed to call.  Again we are not thinking for ourselves.  Very few people have the time or ability to review a 100+ page economic plan.  But we need to hear from those experts who can review the plan and make a decision based on what we hear.    I want the public to be able to hear two sides of an argument and based on the facts given, make a choice.   This is why I am writing this blog.  Hopefully it is read and someone thinks. I don’t think many will agree with everything I write but thinking is the most important item.  If you have any comments please either post or e-mail them to me at matheverywhereblog@gmail.com

Until next time, Fight Innumeracy!  Keep thinking critically about those numbers.

Just finished watching the vice-presidential debate and wanted to comment on the positive and negative poll numbers that will come out of this debate.  Some will ask who “won” the debate.  For me the answer is who wins the election.  In 1988, Lloyd Benson “won” the debate against Dan Quayle but Bush soundly beat Dukasis.  Others will ask who do you think lived up to or exceeded expectations.

The numbers you might not see are the percent error.  Any poll has error in it.  Even the election in November will have error in it.  For polls that error is shown by a statistic called the percent error.  Normally it is given in +- a percentage.  Such as +-3%.  Meaning that a 2 % lead means nothing in a poll because it is with-in the margin of error.

So when the results start coming out  be careful what is being spoken and reported and think what do the numbers really mean.

Until next time, Fight Innumeracy!  Keep thinking critically about those numbers.